Are they optimistic or pessimistic on China’s rapid rise?
As Thucydides wrote, almost 2500 years ago, the real cause of the Peloponnesian War was the growth of the power of Athens and the fear it created in Sparta. The emergence of France was the cause of the chaos that Europe in the early nineteenth century, and one of the causes of the First World War was the fear that the power of Germany inspired its European neighbours. The international power structure in East Asia is today marked by emergence and collapse great powers. During the last decade, the Soviet Union has declined before disappearing. Also, during this period, the Japanese growth continued, and China began to transform its economy. The scale of China\’s GNP growth means that impressive military capabilities should accompany its economic growth. How the system the emergence of Chinese power, the eventual regeneration of Russia, the changing role of Japan and tensions on the Korean peninsula, should be of paramount importance for the stability and prosperity of the future East Asia. According to Nye, if the United States is not the gendarmes of the world, \”the forces already deployed in Asia ensure broad regional stability and deter aggression against our allies \” The purpose is reassuring, unlike the theses developed by Mearsheimer. The Chinese threat, would be in some way not credible, and the risk of a conflict, in the current conditions, unlikely, because of the existence of the American military presence in Asia, provided of course that it is not removed. In the best case, China is presented as being the second world power, not the first, which makes all the difference, leaving the United States the pre-eminence, provided, according to Nye, they assume in full awareness of their strategic leadership. Nye opposes realistic theses by proposing as instruments of pacification, the strengthening of alliances and the development of regional institutions. China is not yet a full democracy, however, liberals argue that the possibility of a power struggle in the international system is negligible, given China’s free trade agreements with countries within its region and beyond. China’s advancement on the world stage has paved the way for liberal scholars around the world to push for a more democratic system of governance
How have they arrived at their assessment?
For scholars because of the weight of the United States, Chinese power has fears, ambitions, but few resources. The fears are those of a fragile legitimacy regime, ideologically isolated. The Chinese power feels threatened by any power that would question Beijing\’s claim to be recognized by all its partners as the great leader of the Asian pole. The ambitions are enormous, they aim to strengthen the Chinese vision of the world order. The funds are based on a declarative power strategy aimed at strengthening China\’s capacity by intimidating or influencing potential opponents to the PRC. As such, the Chinese power and the strategic developments that support it are worrying factors of instability and potential conflict, not only in Asia, but also by the game of alliances in the rest of the world.